Archive for the ‘Barack Obama’ Tag
UPDATED 2/24/09, 12:52 pm:
I’ve read this picture is fake.
That President Obama — boy it was fun to write those two words next to each other 🙂 — was a cigarette smoker (and may still be) is well known, but I had never seen (nor sought) photographic evidence. So I have to laugh at this picture from a Facebook sidebar ad for an I.Q. test that’s been running in recent days.
Amazing how much less confidence he inspires in this picture.
Thanks, Facebook. Was that really necessary?
UPDATED 2/24/09, 1:33 pm:
My crystal ball was cloudy: In the Daily Kos election prediction contest, my predictions earned me a tie for 8,059th place (#8093: DK user ID nitetalker) out of 9,400+ entries.
In the earliest drafts of this post I had the winning margin at 4.8% but revised it downward by 1.5% for publication in a fit of pessimism.
Predicting election results is fun — especially when you think your candidate will win. Here’s a peek inside my crystal ball for this coming Tuesday’s presidential election:
Electoral votes: Obama 311, McCain 227
Noteworthy Obama states: CO, IA, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA
Noteworthy McCain states: FL, IN, MO, NC
My primary reactions: elation, relief.
Popular vote: Obama 50.9%, McCain 47.6% (Obama +3.3%)
The national polls stabilized this past week with Obama up 5-6% but it appears he has gotten a bounce from his infomercial in the last couple of days. I’m predicting Obama will underperform relative to the polls in the popular vote because I’m allowing for the effect of Republican shenanigans — vote suppression and, in some states, compromised voting machines and tabulation software. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, to see Obama overperform relative to the polls and exceed McCain’s popular vote total by 8-9%. Although it seems counter-intuitive given my prediction, I think overperformance is a actually more likely outcome than the pollsters getting the popular vote margin right.
With that in mind, I make the following statement, part fact and part speculation: Last night the Philadelphia Phillies won baseball’s World Series, bringing a major pro sports championship to Philly for the first time since 1983 and ensuring the election of Barack Obama, “The Big O”, as the next U.S. president.
In response to the last part, I imagine George looking at me earnestly and saying “QC, just remember, it’s not speculation — if you foresee it“.
Truthfully, I do predict victory for Obama — I’ll post specifics Sunday morning — but not as an effect of the Phillies’ winning the series. Rather, my prediction is based on polls showing Obama has leads — ample leads — in states totaling significantly more than the 270 electoral votes required to win.
A few related notes not worthy of separate posts …
- The game 5 suspension actually worked out pretty well for Phillies fans, particularly casual ones like myself. The spectators in Citizens Bank Park were able to watch the deciding game without getting (further) soaked. Those watching on TV here in the chronically sleep-deprived Eastern time zone, were able to see the final pitch at a decent hour, 10:00, at least an hour and a half earlier than they would have otherwise.
- The Phillies’ combined record for this playoff/series run of 11-3 was almost as gaudy as the 76ers 12-1 in 1983. Not too shabby. Based on this very limited sample size of two, there is a trend suggesting that when Philly teams win championships, they do it in dominating fashion.
- The continuation of game 5 was preceded on TV by what I’ll call “The Big O Show”, Obama’s exceptionally well-produced 30-minute infomercial. Admittedly I am an Obama supporter, but I must say I was moved by it. I expect it will stop and probably reverse his recent slow slide in the national “horse race” polls.
By the way, earlier today I appended an update two updates to my recent post about rapidly declining gasoline prices.
original version crossposted, with poll, as a diary at Daily Kos
“Cosmic” presidential election predictors, both sports-oriented and not, are often cited as elections approach. Depending on one’s candidate preference, these predictors serve either as reinforcement of or counterpoint to poll results.
The most famous sports-oriented predictor is based on the fortunes of the hometown pro football team for White House residents, the Washington Redskins. From the CBSNews.com article linked above:
If the Washington Redskins win their last home game before election, it means the incumbent party will get to stay in the White House.
This predictor’s long streak of accuracy, dating back to 1936, came to an end with the 2004 election.
I propose a one-time predictor for the pending election based on the results of baseball’s World Series — or as I annoyingly refer to it, the “world serious”. If this predictor turns out to be accurate, my pet name for baseball’s championship will be appropriate — or at least, less stupid.
With the resumption of World Series game 5 between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays just an hour away, I suggest a Phillies championship, whether finalized in game 5, 6, or 7, would portend a Barack Obama victory.
I’ve heard one of my favorite songs, “My Old School” by Steely Dan, hundreds of times. However, it was not until this past Saturday, October 18, just hours before I went to a college football game in Newark, Delaware between the University of Delaware and The College of William and Mary, that I realized this part of the song lyrics specifies the commonly used moniker of the visiting school:
I was smoking with the boys upstairs
When I heard about the whole affair
I said oh no
William and Mary won’t do
Is this lyric a reference to the college? When I told Mrs. QC of my revelation, she insisted it has to be a reference to the college. Color me skeptical. I’ll revisit this controversy at the end of this post.
Now to the topic at hand — the football game. The University of Delaware is “my old school” for both myself and Mrs. QC. We went to grad school there. I previously wrote how I used to attend Delaware games when I was growing up.
It was a beautiful day for football — sunny, not too breezy, temperature pushing 60°. Mrs. QC and I bought subs on the way to Newark and then tailgated briefly before going into the stadium.
The game was a mismatch. Au contraire, Steely Dan — William and Mary did do — they rolled to a 27-3 victory. It was the first time Delaware failed to score a touchdown in a home game since 1990.
My thanks to Mrs. QC for taking these pictures. Click ’em to enlarge to 800 × 531 pixels.
A January 9, 2007 piece titled Why Income Equality Matters by Charles Wheelan, Ph.D., writing as The Naked Economist on Yahoo! Finance, is a fascinating read, especially in light of the current credit crunch and bailout and the upcoming elections.
I’m particularly intrigued by this part:
There’s a very interesting strain of economic research showing that our sense of well-being is determined more by our relative wealth than by our absolute wealth.
In other words, we care less about how much money we have than we do about how much money we have relative to everyone else. In a fascinating survey, Cornell economist Robert Frank found that a majority of Americans would prefer to earn $100,000 while everyone else earns $85,000, rather than earning $110,000 while everyone else earns $200,000.
Think about it: People would prefer to have less stuff, as long as they have more stuff than the neighbors.
The point — and this is still a nascent field — is that a nation may be collectively better off (using some abstract measure of well-being) with a smaller, more evenly divided pie than with a larger pie that’s sliced less equitably.
This point, according to Wheelan, constitutes one of two reasons to be aware of income inequality in the US, the other being that “Income inequality doesn’t motivate anything good when there’s no hope of sharing in the pot of gold”.
Often I’ll make a point in a post and then see someone else make the same point much more eloquently. Here an unidentified member of Chester County Peace Movement improves on the point I made about the proposed Wall Street bailout. (No linkie because this came via email relayed to subscribers of CCPM’s listserv by the movement’s founder, Karen Porter).
From my own simplistic view (like you, I am not an economist) I see this entire bailout as the GOP’s last big bite of the public’s tax money before the neo-cons leave office. They haven’t just emptied the treasury over the past eight years, they are now trying to empty the treasury over the next EIGHT years, no matter who is in office.
This is a total sham…. a way of “downsizng” [sic] government once and for all….so the Democrats will not be able to keep their promises to the middle class. The transfer of money — especially if there are “no strings attached” as both Bush and Paulson are asking — is just another way of letting the GOP banker pigs keep on chowing down on the public trough for years to come.
At first glance, I thought Barack Obama didn’t seem particularly happy to have been asked to pose — or that the camera caught the candidate blinking.
Yes, His closed eyes are those of a man praying for the grace to deserve the trust in that child’s embrace and that father’s face. In that moment I see Sen. Obama’s totally [sic] awareness of the responsibility he has taken on. [emphasis mine]
I fervently hope Obama is elected — and proves up to the challenge. The country is in the crapper and needs a leader badly. The McCain-Palin alternative is unthinkable.
And have you heard the latest economic news? To make Obama’s task potentially much more daunting than it already is, the crooks and incompetents in the Bush administration have started to try to stampede a massive Wall Street bailout bill through Congress. The bill would give Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson authority to buy hundreds of billions of distressed mortgage-related assets without any Congressional oversight whatsoever.
My eyeballs are popping out at the insightfulness of the commentary I’m about to excerpt. It was first posted by Greg King, a Morrison, CO Republican, as a comment in response to an online Anchorage Daily News opinion piece critical of Sarah Palin’s aversion to truth-telling by conservative KFQD radio talk host Dan Fagan. King subsequently repackaged his commentary as a post on his blog at DenverPost.com titled “Republican advice to Obama supporters”. (Actually, I can’t be sure of the order of posting, but it doesn’t really matter.) I first saw King’s commentary on Daily Kos where it was noted by DK user iconoclastic cat.
The popping isn’t happening so much because the commentary is written by a Republican. In fact, my cynical side suspects it is written by a liberal masquerading as a Republican, especially after having reread the Obama cheerleading that follows the portion I’ve excerpted. What’s remarkable is how well KIng “gets” the current political climate in this country and the clarity with which he expresses it.