Predictions: Obama by 311-227, 3.3%
UPDATED 2/24/09, 1:33 pm:
My crystal ball was cloudy: In the Daily Kos election prediction contest, my predictions earned me a tie for 8,059th place (#8093: DK user ID nitetalker) out of 9,400+ entries.
In the earliest drafts of this post I had the winning margin at 4.8% but revised it downward by 1.5% for publication in a fit of pessimism.
Predicting election results is fun — especially when you think your candidate will win. Here’s a peek inside my crystal ball for this coming Tuesday’s presidential election:
Electoral votes: Obama 311, McCain 227
Noteworthy Obama states: CO, IA, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA
Noteworthy McCain states: FL, IN, MO, NC
My primary reactions: elation, relief.
Popular vote: Obama 50.9%, McCain 47.6% (Obama +3.3%)
The national polls stabilized this past week with Obama up 5-6% but it appears he has gotten a bounce from his infomercial in the last couple of days. I’m predicting Obama will underperform relative to the polls in the popular vote because I’m allowing for the effect of Republican shenanigans — vote suppression and, in some states, compromised voting machines and tabulation software. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, to see Obama overperform relative to the polls and exceed McCain’s popular vote total by 8-9%. Although it seems counter-intuitive given my prediction, I think overperformance is a actually more likely outcome than the pollsters getting the popular vote margin right.