Predictions: Obama by 311-227, 3.3%

UPDATED 2/24/09, 1:33 pm:
My crystal ball was cloudy: In the Daily Kos election prediction contest, my predictions earned me a tie for 8,059th place (#8093: DK user ID nitetalker) out of 9,400+ entries.

In the earliest drafts of this post I had the winning margin at 4.8% but revised it downward by 1.5% for publication in a fit of pessimism.


Predicting election results is fun — especially when you think your candidate will win. Here’s a peek inside my crystal ball for this coming Tuesday’s presidential election:

Electoral votes: Obama 311, McCain 227
Noteworthy Obama states: CO, IA, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA
Noteworthy McCain states: FL, IN, MO, NC

My primary reactions: elation, relief.

Popular vote: Obama 50.9%, McCain 47.6% (Obama +3.3%)
The national polls stabilized this past week with Obama up 5-6% but it appears he has gotten a bounce from his infomercial in the last couple of days. I’m predicting Obama will underperform relative to the polls in the popular vote because I’m allowing for the effect of Republican shenanigans — vote suppression and, in some states, compromised voting machines and tabulation software. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, to see Obama overperform relative to the polls and exceed McCain’s popular vote total by 8-9%. Although it seems counter-intuitive given my prediction, I think overperformance is a actually more likely outcome than the pollsters getting the popular vote margin right.

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1 comment so far

  1. sfokc6125 on

    Now lets look an THINK America. Obama and Bidon has called this great NATION Black or White because there is no difference WE ARE ALL AMERICANS. They have called ALL AMERICANS Selfish , Unpatriotic , unless we vote for him.WRONG The first place your voice ether way is REAL AMERICAN. He has proven ties to both domestic and foreign terrorists. Has never served this nations armed forces. Has 90% tardiness record with his currant job as a Senator. The spread the wealth crap and it is crap.In a slow economy you DONT SPEND MORE AND YOU DONT RAISE TAXES. Lower taxes and less spending brings the dollar up it creates jobs. More jobs is more revenue , This also puts AMERICA Back on top in the World economy. The milatary will not follow a leader that has no sence of what VICTORY means to the COUNTRY. Dont let him lower your chance at having the AMERICAN DREAM.If you get the money from his welfare share the wealth plan then you become the one who then pays 50 % and you dont grow you become the back that HIS PARTY GETS RICH. So you never grow but the democrats get your money .WAKE UP WE ARE ONE NATION , We NEED A PROVEN LEADER THAT SEEs AMERICA , NOT DEMOCRATS NOT REPULICANS BUT AMERICANS. John McCain has crossed isle moretimes then Obama has been in the senate. A leader never uses guilt to get vote. I voted my belief not by party, I AM A AMERICAN AND YOU CANT USE GUILT TO CHANGE MY MIND. IT IS MY VOICE AND MY VOTE.


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